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Analysts and analyst reports
Summary
| Inderes | Danske Bank | |
|---|---|---|
| Target price / fair value | 15.00 | 14.0-15.6 |
| Recommendation | Accumulate | |
| Updated | 8.2.2026 | 9.2.2026 |
| Latest report | Report (9 Feb 2026) | Report (9 Feb 2026) |
| Analyst | Atte Jortikka | Mika Karppinen |
Danske Bank’s analysis
Kreate reported a promising Q4 report. Revenue growth was strong, the EBITA margin exceeded 5%, cash flow generation was very healthy, and order inflow was strong. We expect to see more sizeable order announcements in the coming quarters, further strengthening the volume outlook. After updating our estimates, we increase our fair value range to EUR14.0-15.6 (EUR11.7-13.3).
• Strong Q4 Kreate reported a very healthy Q4. Robust sales growth continued and margins also clearly surprised positively if excluding the non-recurring costs related to M&A. The robust sales growth absorbed the earlier increased costs to future growth. In recent years, margins have been a bit of a sore point in Kreate’s delivery, and therefore over 5% margin in Q4 was a positive sign for the coming years.
• Further strengthening in the order book expected. Kreate’s order book increased to a record-high EUR400.8m in Q4, although the SRV acquisition partly boosted the result (EUR79m). The company still has EUR400m of projects in the development phase, which will be booked to the order book in the coming quarters, further improving the volume outlook for the coming years. The improvement in Finnish infra market conditions has gradually started to materialise in Kreate’s order flow. Activity in industrial, green transition, defence and railway-related projects looks quite good. The acquisition of SRV Infra also marks Kreate’s entry into the rock engineering segment, further improving the company’s competitiveness.
• Estimate changes. We increase our EBITA estimates for 2026-27 by 16% and 7%, respectively.
• Valuation. Currently, the share is trading at EV/EBITA for 2026E of 9.7x, a 12% discount to the peer group. Historically, Kreate has traded at a discount of 8% on average compared with the peer group. We believe further upside to the share would require further evidence of improving margins towards the targeted over 5% level.
Inderes’ reports
Kreate’s Q4 result was strong overall, with continued profitable growth. The growth spurt we expected is materializing stronger than anticipated this year, leading to positive changes in our estimates. Our estimates indicate that the large, multi-year projects to be recorded in the order book from the development phase over the next six months will provide visibility further into the future. Additionally, the market outlook for infrastructure construction is positive in both Finland and Sweden, and we believe the competitiveness of the company is good. Therefore, we are now relying on a slightly longer-term outlook in our valuation. Thanks to the estimated earnings growth, valuation multiples will fall to an attractive level already next year. We raise our target price to EUR 15.0 (was EUR 12.5) and our recommendation to Accumulate (was Reduce).
Strong end to the year
Kreate’s Q4 continued the strong development seen in the previous quarter, with revenue growing by 25% to 94.6 MEUR (estimate 89.1 MEUR). For the full year, revenue surpassed the guidance range, reaching 315.2 MEUR. Revenue was further supported by a robust order book, which grew to approximately 400 MEUR during the quarter. Profitability also increased from the comparison period, both in absolute and relative terms, with Q4 EBITA at 3.9 MEUR (forecast 3.8 MEUR). Profitability was weighed down by the SRV Infra (now Kreate Rock) transaction carried out during the quarter, which had a negative impact on earnings of approximately 1 MEUR. For the full year, EBITA settled at 10.2 MEUR, but considering the transaction’s negative impact on earnings, profitability also settled at roughly the upper end of the guidance range. There were no particular surprises in the income statement’s bottom lines, and net profit for the quarter was 2.6 MEUR, roughly in line with our forecast of 2.5 MEUR. The company’s board of directors proposes to the AGM that a dividend of EUR 0.60 be paid. We predicted a dividend payment of EUR 0.51, and the level now proposed illustrates the company’s strong balance sheet position despite the completed acquisition.
Growth is materializing stronger than our previous estimates
Kreate’s guidance for the current year is for revenue to grow to 430-470 MEUR and EBITA to 15-18 MEUR. Although the estimated growth is driven by familiar factors, profitable growth will materialize significantly stronger than our previous estimate. We have raised our estimates for the current year significantly. We now expect revenue to grow to 445 MEUR (was 392 MEUR) and EBITA to reach 16.3 MEUR (was 15.1 MEUR). Our updated estimate is especially supported by the company’s strong order book at the beginning of the year. Additionally, we continue to expect significant order intake during the first half of the year from the company’s projects in the development phase. Last year, Kreate Rock’s EBITA climbed to a strong 7.8 MEUR. Last year’s earnings were likely bolstered by several large projects, which helped strengthen the EBITA margin to nearly 9%. In our view, it is unlikely that this level will be repeated in the current year. However, Kreate Rock’s order book remains strong at around 80 MEUR.
Expected return becomes sufficient again
Kreate’s share is valued at 10x EV/EBIT and 12x P/E multiples based on our revised current-year estimates. Relative to our acceptable valuation (EV/EBIT & P/E: 10-12x), the valuation seems neutral. On the other hand, by 2027, the multiples in our estimates will fall below 10x. Considering the company’s order book, the volume of projects in the development phase, and the positive market outlook for various types of infrastructure construction, we also use our 2027 forecasts to support our valuation. In addition to a strong earnings growth outlook, the company’s share offers a dividend yield of around 5% in the coming years, according to our estimates, which further supports the expected return.