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Analysts and analyst reports
Summary
| OP | Inderes | Danske Bank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target price / fair value | 28.00 | 25.00 | 16.8 – 18.4 |
| Recommendation | Accumulate | Accumulate | |
| Updated | 18 June 2026 | 17 June 2026 | 27 Apr2026 |
| Latest report | Q2 preview (18 June 2026) Report 29 May 2026 | Report 17 June 2026 | Report 27 Apr 2026 |
| Analyst | Joona Harjama & Henri Parkkinen | Atte Jortikka | Miro Peltomäki |
OP’s analysis
Kreate issued a positive profit warning ahead of Midsummer (16 June). The company’s operational performance benefits from a strong tailwind, and we expect operating profit to more than double in 2026. As a result of the recent information, we raise our EBITA forecasts for 2026–2027 by as much as 20%. The valuation multiples still appear reasonable in relation to the growth outlook (EV/EBIT 2026e 11.4x; 2027e 9.9x), and earnings growth in the next couple of years will keep the expected return at a sensible level. We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and revise our target price to EUR 28.00 (prev. EUR 21.00).
Q2: Kreate releases its Q2 results on Tuesday, 14 July, at around 7.30 CET. We expect the company’s revenue to more than double to around EUR 150m, supported by robust business growth in both Finland and Sweden. We estimate that EBITA will rise to EUR 5.1m (Q2 2025: EUR 2.2m), which corresponds to a margin of 3.4%. During Q2, the company has announced new projects worth around EUR 250m to be recorded in the order book, and we estimate that the order book will reach a new record high again at the end of June.
Positive profit warning: In its revised guidance on 16 June, Kreate estimates that its revenue in 2026 will grow to EUR 600–650m (prev. EUR 510–550m) and that EBITA will grow to EUR 21–26m (prev. EUR 18–22m). The mid-point of the guidance is around 14% higher than the consensus prior to the profit warning. The revision reflects the solid growth in the order book and the efficient implementation of projects in H1. New projects have been launched quickly, and the company estimates that achieving its guidance will not require major new projects in the remainder of the year.
Sweden’s growth story is making steady progress: Kreate announced yesterday, on Wednesday, 17 June, the largest order in its history in Sweden. The project worth around EUR 30m concerns the renovation of the Lundby Tunnel in Gothenburg, which will ensure the continuity of volumes in the western neighbouring market in the next few years. Several major infrastructure and tunnel construction projects, such as the Stockholm metro extensions, will be launched in the coming years in Sweden. The company has a convincing track record of expanding its business in Sweden, and the above-mentioned projects that will be put to tender offer excellent conditions for the continuation of the story.
Valuation: Our target price is based on the valuation multiples EV/EBITA 11x and P/E 13x (80%) on our forecasts for 2026–2027 (25/75) and the DCF model (20%).
Inderes’ reports
Kreate issued a positive earnings revision yesterday, and we raise our target price to EUR 25.0 (was EUR 20.0). We maintain our Accumulate recommendation. During the quarter, the company announced projects worth over 200 MEUR, which will also significantly support volume levels in the coming years. We also believe that relative profitability will improve in the coming years as revenue reaches a new scale. We find the pricing still seems reasonable, considering our significantly raised earnings estimates and the expectation of substantial earnings growth.
Guidance ranges rose clearly again
Kreate’s new revenue guidance for this year is 600-650 MEUR (2025: 315 MEUR, growth 90-106%), while the previous guidance issued in March expected revenue of 510-550 MEUR. Prior to the earnings revision, our estimate for this year’s revenue was 540 MEUR, so the new guidance clearly exceeds our previous expectations. According to the company, the raised guidance is due to better-than-expected execution of ongoing projects and a strong order book development during Q2. New projects have been launched quickly, and according to the company, reaching the guidance range no longer requires significant new projects. We consider this an excellent performance, as our estimates already included the consolidation of KFS Finland, the growth from the SRV Infra acquisition, and the expectation of a strengthening order book and its realization.
The company now expects 2026 EBITA to be 21.0-26.0 MEUR (2025 10.2 MEUR, growth 106-155%). The previous guidance expected an EBITA of 18.0-22.0 MEUR, and our own estimate before the earnings revision was around 20 MEUR. According to the company, the raised earnings guidance is mainly based on the estimated revenue growth. The midpoint of the new guidance (23.5 MEUR) implies an EBITA margin of approximately 3.8%, which is largely in line with our previous estimate of 3.7%. Thus, we do not expect relative profitability to rise significantly above our previous expectations; instead, strong volume will be the main driver of earnings growth.
Revenue doubles in our expectations this year
Kreate’s order book stood at 689 MEUR at the end of the first quarter. During the second quarter, the company announced new projects worth just under 230 MEUR to be recorded in the order backlog. We believe the order book will reach a new record level at the end of the quarter. Our estimate is based on our updated Q2 revenue estimate, announced orders, and the order mass, which is likely to fall below the disclosure threshold. Following the earnings revision and the order book, which is still strengthening in our estimates, we have clearly raised our estimates for this year. We now expect the company’s revenue to reach 624 MEUR and EBITA to be 24 MEUR.
Thanks to the strong order intake in H1, we believe the company will also start next year with a higher order book than this year, provided the order flow remains stable during the rest of the year. Reflecting this, we have also raised our estimates for the coming years. In addition, we believe Kreate still has good opportunities to improve its relative profitability in the current market situation. We believe profitability this year will continue to be weighed down by front-loaded growth investments in personnel, especially during the first half of the year.
Earnings growth continues to turn multiples to an attractive level
Despite the recent sharp rise in the share price, the company’s earnings-based valuation multiples turn to a neutral level with our updated estimates (P/E 13x, EV/EBIT 11x). Supported by a strengthening order book and largely positive end-market outlook, we expect earnings growth to push next year’s multiples to an attractive level (P/E 11x, EV/EBIT 9x). In addition to the forecasted earnings growth, the stock offers a dividend yield of around 4%, supporting the stock’s total expected return.
Danske Bank’s analysis
Kreate reported strong and accelerated sales growth. In addition, growing volumes supported the margin in Q1. The company’s order intake was robust, and the market conditions continue to be favourable, especially in the segments where Kreate is present, supporting the outlook for the coming years. We increase our fair value range to EUR16.8-18.4 (previously EUR 16.5-18.1).
Sales growth accelerating. Kreate reported stronger-than-expected figures for seasonally low Q1. Sales growth accelerated (89%), supported by the new project starts, and increased volumes supported the margin, absorbing the negative impact from the previous growth investments.
Very strong order backlog development. The infra market conditions continue to strengthen in both Finland and Sweden, especially in the segments where Kreate is present. This was visible in the company’s order backlog, which increased to EUR689m in Q1 versus EUR401m in Q4 25 and EUR226m a year ago. EUR339m of the order book will be recognised as revenues in 2026. For example, the company has seven data centres under construction. The order book does not include the projects that are still in the development phase, worth close to EUR200m, offering further visibility for the coming years. Management expects some of those development phase projects to be booked as orders already in Q2, further strengthening the order book in Q2.
Estimate changes. We increase our EBITA estimates for 2026-28 by 1%, 2% and 6%, respectively.
Valuation. Kreate’s share is trading at 2026E EV/EBITA of 9.9x, an 11% discount to the peer group. Historically, Kreate has traded at a discount of 9% on average to the peer group. We believe upside to the share would require further evidence of improving margins towards the targeted level of over 5%.