The analyses produced by the aforementioned analysts are independent and impartial views of those following Kreate. Kreate is not responsible for the veracity, completeness or use of the information by anyone. The information does not represent the views, forecasts or estimates of Kreate or its management and is not intended to be investment advice. Kreate is in no way responsible for your use of the content provided on the site.
Analysts and analyst reports
Summary
| Danske Bank | OP | Inderes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target price / fair value | 36 – 42 | 42.00 | 38.00 |
| Recommendation | Buy | Accumulate | |
| Updated | 5 Oct 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 |
| Latest report | |||
| Analyst | Miro Peltomäki | Joona Harjama | Atte Jortikka |
Danske Bank’s analysis
Kreate has continued its extremely strong performance, raising guidance for the third time this year with the profitability upgrade substantially above consensus estimates. The company continues to benefit from the datacentre construction boom in Finland that is providing a credible growth driver in an otherwise stable infrastructure construction market. After updating our estimates in line with the revised guidance, we increase our fair value range to EUR 36-42 (previously EUR 22.2-23.8).
Datacentres delivering growth. In our opinion, Kreate is one of the most competitive companies in Finland in datacentre-related infrastructure works, as evidenced by its statement that it is currently working on eight sites simultaneously. This provides an excellent growth driver for the company, as datacentre construction in Finland looks set to continue its extremely strong growth trajectory. Also, DC projects often have a disproportionate amount of infrastructure-related works due to being located close to the electrical grid in otherwise suboptimal building locations.
Profitability expectations bumped up. The latest guidance upgrade highlights the company’s ability to deliver profitability exceeding its current target of 5% EBITA, with the guidance midpoint implying around 5.7% EBITA margin for H2. Note, profitability was just over 3% last year, and we believe that if it achieves its target this could be a major share price driver.
Leadership transition. Alongside the latest guidance upgrade, Kreate informed the market that CEO Timo Vikström has chosen to leave the company by the end of 2027. While such a leadership change might pose a challenge, having a long transition period could be seen as a mitigating factor.
Valuation. We increase our fair value range to EUR36-42, with the midpoint corresponding to 2026E EV/EBIT of 11.1x, on par with its closest peers, which historically have traded at 10.9x. We believe Kreate’s historical 8% peer discount should narrow as its scale and earnings stability improve, with more ambitious post-2027 targets a potential further catalyst for the share.
OP’s analysis
Kreate benefits from strong tailwinds as the data centre market is growing. Demand will also become stronger in many other areas as, for example, allocations for transport infrastructure investments and military mobility are on the rise. The structure of demand is stronger than we previously estimated. We estimate that growth will remain robust also in 2027, which in our view is not sufficiently priced in by the market. We raise our target price to EUR 42.00 (prev. EUR 30.00) and upgrade our recommendation to Buy (prev. Accumulate) after the robust guidance upgrade.
- An expected positive profit warning, extent was surprising: Kreate upgraded its guidance for 2026 yesterday (22 September) for the third time. The company estimates that its revenue in 2026 will be EUR 670–710m (prev. EUR 600–650m) and EBITA will be EUR 32–36m (prev. EUR 21–26m). The mid-point of the profit guidance rose by as much as 45% and it is now around 22% higher than the most recent consensus (EUR 27.9m). The upgrade was triggered by projects that have progressed better than expected, growth brought by data centre projects and projects that the company has won. KFS Finland, which was consolidated into the group as of the beginning of April, also benefits from demand for data centres, and its contribution is estimated to considerably exceed the previous indication (revenue of EUR 30m in 2026). We raise our EBITA forecasts for the next couple of years by 34–43% and expect that the company will reach an EBITA margin of 5% in line with its targets already this year.
- CEO Vikström will step down by the end of 2027: At the same time, Kreate announced that the company’s Board of Directors had agreed that the current CEO Timo Vikström will leave his position on 31 December 2027. Vikström has been very successful with the company as a whole over the past ten years, and growth this year will be the icing on the cake. The recruitment of the new CEO will begin immediately, and the replacement should have the capabilities to steer the company’s growth aspirations in the Nordic countries.
- Valuation is still inexpensive in spite of the share price rise: Kreate is still affordably priced in relation to its recent earnings performance and market growth outlook. Based on our revised forecasts for 2026, EV/EBIT valuation multiple is 9.8x, and the expected earnings growth will weigh down valuation even lower in the next few years (2028e 8.0x). Our target price is based on the valuation multiples EV/EBITA 11x and P/E 13x on our forecasts for 2027 (80%) and the DCF model (20%).
Inderes’ reports
Kreate raised its guidance for already the third time this year. The upgrade was expected, but its magnitude clearly exceeded our previous forecasts. At the same time, the company announced that the CEO will be stepping down by the end of next year, which we naturally view as a loss, although the long transition period allows for a controlled handover. Our estimates for the coming years increased significantly and were mainly driven by margins, as we expect successful project execution, an increasing share of private projects, and operational leverage to support profitability in the coming years as well. Following quite significant forecast changes and an even stronger outlook, we raise our target price to EUR 38 (from EUR 30). We maintain our Accumulate recommendation.
Guidance offered a positive surprise, CEO change was a negative one
Behind Kreate’s new full-year guidance are several growth drivers that are performing even stronger than we expected. According to the company, projects have progressed more rapidly than previously anticipated, and data center projects were specifically highlighted as a pillar of growth for both Kreate and KFS Finland. In addition, growth is supported by new projects won since the previous guidance update. We considered new orders to be the most likely catalyst for an upwards revision, as the company already estimated in the Q2 report that it would reach the previous revenue guidance range based solely on end-June order book.
The guidance upgrade was overshadowed by the resignation of CEO Timo Vikström, who has successfully steered the company for ten years, although he will continue in his role until the end of next year. We naturally consider this a loss for Kreate, but the exceptionally long transition period of over a year allows for a controlled handover and minimizes short-term operational risks.
Guidance above our expectations, particularly for profitability
Although our previous forecasts anticipated a third guidance upgrade (revenue of 662 MEUR, EBITA of 28 MEUR), it materialized significantly stronger than we expected. The updated guidance (revenue of 670–710 MEUR, EBITA of 32–36 MEUR) implies a revenue growth of 104–126% for the second half of the year and an EBITA margin range of ca. 5.0–6.5%. Growth is supported by the acquisition of SRV Infra completed at the turn of the year and the consolidation of KFS Finland from the beginning of April onwards, but we estimate that roughly two-thirds of the growth in the second half of the year will be organic. The organic growth is driven by a record-strong order book, which, in addition to data center construction, is broadly supported by, among other things, defense projects as well as more traditional transport infrastructure and railway construction projects.
Although the current order book is being converted into revenue at a rapid pace, we believe the company will also enter next year with an order book that is significantly stronger than in the comparison period. The volume level is further supported by the multi-year nature of several large projects. Demand related to data centers, in turn, is supported by projects that have already received investment decisions but have not yet started.
Earnings growth fulfills elevated expectations
Kreate’s share has risen by more than 150% since our recommendation change in February, but in our view, the increase is justified, as our earnings forecasts for the current and coming years have roughly doubled over the same period. With our current forecasts, the company’s valuation (2026-27e EV/EBIT 11-9x, P/E 13-12x) remains overall at an attractive level relative to our accepted valuation (EV/EBIT 10-12x, P/E 10-13x). In our view, more significant upside from the current level would require further evidence of the sustainability of the current earnings level, because despite good fundamentals, the continuity of the earnings level is clearly the most significant risk factor for the share following this year’s step change.